NFL January Madness? The "Tournament" Begins

More than 20 years ago, legendary NFL coach Bill Parcells, then with the Dallas Cowboys, was first quoted as calling the NFL playoffs the “tournament”. While it hasn’t caught on in the same way March Madness is commonly called a tournament, this way of looking at the post-season is actually pretty accurate. Tournaments have seedings, tournaments have brackets and most commonly, tournaments are one and done. The only thing the NFL post-season doesn’t have in common with March Madness – there are no at-large bids. Only the top 14 teams in the league earn their way into the tournament, even if it takes a last play missed field goal to do it (sorry Ravens).

The 2025 NFL “Tournament” is set to kickoff this weekend with a total of six games; two on Saturday, three on Sunday and one on Monday night. As is always the case, storylines abound heading into the post-season, but here are three themes worth focusing on.

1. Rags to Riches

In a typical NFL season, there are always a handful of teams that make the playoffs just a year prior to being on the outside looking in, but 2025 is unique in the number of playoff-bound teams who didn’t just miss out on the tournament last season, but were truly awful. At the top of the Cinderella storyline are the New England Patriots and the Jacksonville Jaguars, both of whom finished 2024 with a record of 4-13. Incredibly the two teams combined for 27 wins in 2025, and the Patriots ended the Buffalo Bills streak of 5 consecutive AFC East titles.

Other playoff teams who had double digit losses last season are: The Chicago Bears (5-12), The Carolina Panthers (5-12) and the San Francisco 49ers (6-11). With the exception of the Niners, who’s record in 2024 was more a function of a series of decimating injuries than an organizational implosion, the other new playoff teams can all point to the undeniable impact realized by hiring the right coach; all but the Panthers and Niners brought in their new man following the 2024 season. A case for NFL coach of the year can be made for Mike Vrabel, Ben Johnson and Liam Coen (not to mention Kyle Shanahan, who should get consideration after leading the Niners to within one game of the Number 1 seed in the NFC in a year that his starting quarterback only played half a season).

These impressive turnarounds point to the importance of organizational structure, a visionary head coach who can promote the right culture and ultimately how quickly players buy in when they believe in the program. While difficult to get right, this recipe should be a blueprint for the six or eight teams who ended up at the bottom of the standings in 2025, and may soon be looking to find the next “right guy”.

2. The class of 2024

As noted above, the quickest route to success in the NFL is hiring the right coach, but a very close second is marrying the coach with the right quarterback. As always, this is easier said than done, but three teams on a meteoric rise to the top of the NFL each found their franchise QB in the first round of the 2024 draft, and it all happened within the first 12 picks.

Caleb Williams (1st overall), Drake Maye (3rd overall) and Bo Nix (12th overall) have led their respective teams to divisional titles in 2025, and Nix, after getting his first taste of playoff football in 2024 is QB1 of the Number 1 seed in the AFC. Often, when handicapping first round playoff games it is common to assume that a young quarterback will not be able to handle the pressure or that, when forced to put the game in his hands, he simply won’t be up to the task. I’m not so sure this will be the case this time around.

Given what we’ve seen of these three in 2025, they all possess the physical tools to succeed in the NFL, namely arm strength, agility and toughness, but they have also been able to lead their teams to multiple fourth quarter comebacks (Nix and Williams combined for an astounding 14 this season!), showing the kind of poise and patience we’ve come to expect from the likes of Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen or Matt Stafford. These intangibles, coupled with their respective “quarterback whisperers” (Johnson, Josh McDaniels and Sean Payton) have accelerated their development and make it harder to imagine that they will implode under the bright lights of the playoffs. Don’t be surprised if at least one of these three is left standing in Santa Clara on February 8th.

3. Someone’s missing at the table

For the first time since 2014, the Kansas City Chiefs (and more notably, Patrick Mahomes) will not be participating in the tournament. For many teams (and fans) this is a welcome development, but likely no one is more excited about this prospect than the Buffalo Bills. Regular season excellence in the Josh Allen era has led to year after year hope that the Bills long Super Bowl drought would come to an end, only to have those hopes come crashing down in heart-breaking losses to the Chiefs.

All you have to say to Bills fans is “13 seconds” or “wide right – again”, not to mention the 4th and 1 fiasco in last season’s epic 32-29 Bills loss in yet another AFC Championship game to elicit tears of anger and sorrow. It’s not inconceivable that the Bills could well be multiple Super Bowl champs over the past five years had they not been forced to face off with Mahomes time and time again. Of Allen’s 6 playoff losses, four of them have come at the hands of the Chiefs.

While Allen and company have not been quite as dominant as in the past few seasons, and while their roster has some flaws (especially at the receiver position), their path in the AFC just seems easier without the specter of facing the Chiefs at any point. Emotionally this has to be a huge relief to Sean McDermott and his team, and maybe, just maybe this really will be the Bills year.

The fun begins on Saturday, and personally I can’t wait.

And, if you’re looking for a Super Bowl LX prediction…give me Seattle and Buffalo.

Enjoy the tournament!